Abstract:Reliability analysis based on probability and statistics is of great significance for aviation composite structures. One is that the safety requirements of aviation structures, especially civil aviation structures, are extremely high, and it is necessary to predict the possibility of failure as much as possible. The second is that there are more variation factors in composite materials, and the traditional design leads to a higher discount coefficient. At present, the composite structural design still uses the method of safety factor to ensure the reliability of the structure. In this process there is no formal risk assessment, and the reliability analysis based on probability sets a reliability goal to replace the safety factor, but it requires more mature probability and statistical methods and a large number of sample data, so it can only be used as a supplement to the traditional structural design, and the risk prediction is carried out when the safety margin is insufficient. This paper discusses the historical evolution, significance, main theoretical methods and general steps of reliability probabilistic analysis of aeronautical composite materials, and looks forward to the future of reliability analysis of composite structures, providing a certain reference for the development and research of the reliability analysis of composite materials.