基于故障树与马尔科夫分析模型的发动机系统安全性评估
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Engine System Safety Analysis Based on Fault Tree and Markov Models
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    摘要:

    安全性评估是发动机适航验证的重要方法之一,故障树与马尔科夫分析方法是安全性评估常用的方法,两种方法在安全性评估的不同时机具有各自的特点。针对故障树与马尔科夫在安全性评估中的应用时机行了深入的研究,分析结果表明:对于失效率为常数的顺序相关的系统,若部件是主动失效部件(即λ×t较小),应用故障树与马尔科夫分析方法均可准确评估系统的失效概率,采用故障树可以减少运算的复杂性;若部件是潜在失效部件,由于部件暴露时间较长(即λ×t较大),使用马尔科夫的分析方法可以更精确的评估系统的安全性。

    Abstract:

    Safety analysis is one of the most important means of compliance demonstration for airworthiness regulation. Fault tree analysis(FTA) and Markov(MA) models are widely used in safety analysis. In this paper, we address the application of FTA and MA model in failure sequence dependent event. The results of FTA are compared with that of MA model. It shows that if the system is composed of items with active failure(λ×t is minor) ,using either FTA or MA model, we can correctly obtain system failure probability. In addition, we find using FTA analysis could reduce the calculation complexity. However, if the system is composed of items with potential failure, due to the long exposure time (λ×t is major), MA model could be used to analyze system safety more accurately. More detailed analysis indicates that the quantitative analysis of the degree of importance for the top event can be used to establish the system repair method.

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孙杨慧.基于故障树与马尔科夫分析模型的发动机系统安全性评估[J].民用飞机设计与研 究,2013(5):29-Sun Yanghui. Engine System Safety Analysis Based on Fault Tree and Markov Models[J]. Civil Aircraft Design and Research,2013,(5):29-. ( in Chinese)

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  • 在线发布日期: 2013-11-07
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